what can be done to avoid communications intelligence failures in the future

The Cold War and nuclear deterrence policy shifted the intelligence community focus to strategic intelligence collection on the Soviet Union, and, to a minimal extent, Chinese communism. Despite their limited numbers and capabilities, especially at the beginning of the conflict, on-the-ground intelligence assets on the Korean Peninsula provided usable information to supported commanders. [23] CIA reporting at the time also indicated that more than 200,000 Chinese soldiers were prepping along the North Korean border.

Before discussing structure, it is necessary to review briefly the nature of the future security threats to US interests. Senior civilian leaders in Washington and senior military leaders in Asia refuted reporting which could have altered the war due to groupthink and preconceived opinions. For example, we could introduce rotationals from academia into the midlevel ranks of the IC. At a time when we should be reducing overhead, we are increasing such investment in the mistaken belief that we can manage ourselves out of this mess. A large fusion center in Washington would consist of regional, transnational, infrastructure, and technical components, with separate regional elements that address current (J2), basic, and longer term estimative work (a robust staffing of regional offices would ensure proper warfighter support by maintaining a ready pool of experts available for crisis task forces). As a Community, we have largely lost track of the view of intelligence articulated by former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Dick Kerr: "All we bring to the table are facts and analysis of those facts." Perhaps the most significant intelligence failure was the inability to separate personal opinions and the desire to please superiors when presenting intelligence: Policy-makers in Washington and military planners throughout the Pacific continuously prepare for situations on the Korean Peninsula. [24] However, the widespread belief that the Soviet Union would not allow the North Korean or Chinese forces to attack took precedence to the mounting evidence on the ground.[25]. Recruiting will contact applicants within 45 days if their qualifications meet our needs. On some occasions intelligence wasn’t just ignored, but altered or minimized by restructuring. The system is built on fallacious assumptions about what intelligence analysis is and how it is carried out; as such, the system has to fail. Strategic intelligence analysis and the national intelligence structure failed during the Korean War on two well-known occasions: anticipating the initial North Korean invasion and ignoring the signs of large-scale Chinese intervention. We will work to protect all information you If we try to tackle an entire Community restructuring in one step, it would entail substantial risk, leaving the United States Government without a fully functioning intelligence apparatus.

In reality, the analytic base is dangerously thin, and we have far fewer people staying abreast of raw data, adding to the corporate knowledge, than is generally believed. Certainly, there need to be some threshold decisions, including the extent of our role in economic or environmental intelligence. The prioritization of targets was reflected by the published intelligence requirements. Despite these optimistic trends, other threats will prove to be very real in the first decade of the 21st century. This division of labor sounded good in theory, but it has virtually balkanized the Community. The Services retain most scientific and technical responsibilities and analyze the ground, air, and naval forces of Country X, including future systems that X might deploy--even though they have no capacity to compare Country X's interservice priorities or to incorporate defense economic constraint analysis. [3] Peter C. Unsinger, “Three Intelligence Blunders in Korea,” in International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Volume 3, Issue 4, 1989, 549. The reasons will be simple: we have gotten away from basics--the collection and unbiased analysis of facts. Header Image: Chinese POWs captured by U.S. forces, December 1950 | Wikimedia Commons. Second, the analysts' narrow charter can result in an excessively conservative risk equation that stems from their perception of what is "really" important. The responsibility for Country X's database may reside at a Command, but the Command has little expertise in other areas such as whether and how (in terms of logistics and C3, for example) Country X will fight a war. We just need to manage the IC a little better. Depending on what you provide, we may offer you compensation. The Command Intelligence Centers would no longer have responsibilities for national-level production. Whether we retain something like the current size or are forced to downsize much further than we already have, the failure is inevitable unless we begin to analyze the underlying problems. In other words, all organizations have a piece of the puzzle, but none can put the puzzle together. When senior leaders re-organized and over-emphasized reporting which supported their biases, analysis and reporting fell in step. At the same time, it is apparent that in many parts of the world there is an ongoing shift in the definition of state power away from military strength, and this will cause high-level consumers to become increasingly interested in an entire range of nonmilitary issues. best method depends on your personal situation. [6] In order to appease political superiors, the agencies voluntarily joined the Armed Forces Security Agency (AFSA), an umbrella Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) organization. [3] Inadequate manning and skill sets, erroneous target prioritization, and a failure to integrate tactical collection into strategic analysis all played a role in these missteps. Strategically, Russian nuclear forces will drop regardless of START II, and Chinese forces will remain at second-strike, deterrent levels. Intelligent failures are those that arise from thoughtful actions or experiments - what we like to call smart risks - and result in useful learning, allowing us to move forward more wisely. Our mission. communication issues, the CIA Recruitment Center does not accept resumes, nor can we return By eliminating the hidden unemployment and returning those billets to actual analytic responsibilities, we could demonstrate that the number of people is not--and never has been--the problem. We are underinvested in analysts in favor of the non-substantive functionaries necessary to run the IC's multiple agencies. Having a Community and then effecting a division of labor among its members fails the common sense test. There are many brilliant analysts in these organizations, but corporate objectivity can come under severe pressure. uuid:18f38380-3a42-4a8c-9206-699a754536c9 In this article, we’ll detail how to avoid miscommunication in the workplace. (5) The following questions and answers provide some insight into the necessary fixes.

(1) The combined total annual defense budgets of North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Cuba approximate half that of the US Intelligence Community. Many midlevel managers' priorities are misplaced, and loyalty to one's agency too often has primacy. Tactical-level intelligence capabilities were almost non-existent on the Korean Peninsula at the outbreak of the war. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.

At one point up to 150 guerillas conducted island-hopping operations around Inchon. Or it may take a more nontraditional form: we overstate numerous threats leading to tens of billions of dollars of unnecessary expenditures; database errors lead to a politically unacceptable number of casualties in a peace-enforcement operation; or an operation does not go well because the IC is not able to provide the incredibly specific data necessary to support a new generation of weapons.

[22], Shortly before the North’s attack, U.S. SIGINT identified at least six of the nine Chinese armies relocating to Manchuria in preparation for crossing the Yalu River, but U.S. decision makers downplayed the reports.

Christian H. Heller is an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps. [38] This information allowed U.N. forces to defend the 140-mile line with significantly fewer troops and free up more men for the landing at Inchon. CIA needs to retain sufficient military and technical expertise to ensure that it can analyze Country X's national security policy in some detail; CIA analysts should no more be a hostage to DIA's military analysis than should DIA be forced to rely on CIA's political judgments. If we do opt to maintain a Community, it will mean that we have accepted significant amounts of overlap. We’ll start by covering the common causes of miscommunication in the workplace. uuid:8c62a276-b2a4-4de2-8d61-28ed90018ec5 The Intelligence Community (IC) budget has remained under pressure and manpower cuts have continued, but bureaucratic politics and legislative prerogatives have perpetuated about a dozen national-level agencies and forced a further division of analytic labor. In the end, we may not suffer a Pearl Harbor, but simply succumb to a series of mistakes that raises questions about an intelligence budget that dwarfs the entire defense budget of most countries.(1). [36] Tactical HUMINT operations lacked a structure for coordination and intelligence sharing which hindered operations and intelligence sharing. Under the optimal approach, the former Service subordinate centers outside Washington would be slimmed down and would revert to basic S&T intelligence. The lack of an actionable national security policy means that to varying degrees we have to "do the world." The primary reports used by senior civilian leaders to make decisions in Korea were Daily Intelligence Summaries (DIS).


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